Two developments this week reinforce our key views for 2023. First, Russia’s threat to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, while escalating the war in Ukraine, confirms that geopolitical risk will rebound and new oil…
The tempo of China’s and the US’s military operations is picking up sharply. The risk of a sudden, perhaps unintended, escalation of military conflict, therefore, is rising in the South China Sea. So is the risk of another shooting…
The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.
When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.
Europe’s domestic economy continues to surprise to the upside, can small-cap stocks do the same?
In Section I, we explain why we do not see the deceleration in US inflation, the likely near-term pickup in European growth, and the end of China’s dynamic zero-COVID policy as signs of a sustainable rebound in global economic…
China’s re-opening – powered by the fiscal and monetary stimulus required to achieve at least 5% real GDP growth after flattish 2022 growth – and a weaker USD will catalyze demand growth this year and next, lifting global oil…
In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?