Inflation is hot, but inflation expectations are not. We explain the answer to this apparent puzzle and discuss the investment implications. Plus we identify two commodities that are at imminent risk of reversal.
We Introduce our new macro models for the Eurozone’s equity earnings, which include sectoral forecasts. Find out what they predict for the next six-to-nine months.
The Gulf’s political economy – particularly that of KSA – drives the supply side of oil-price discovery. This has been evolving since 2017, when OPEC 2.0 was formed. It is now fundamental to the market. We expect Brent to average $95…
Tight monetary policy will suppress copper capex. Loose fiscal policy, which is lavishing stimulus on energy and defense firms, will stoke copper demand. Constrained copper supply and turbo-charged demand will feed into headline…
Eventually South Africa will do its macro rebalancing the least painful way: via adjustments in nominal variables such as prices and currency, rather than in real variables such as jobs and incomes. That entails a much weaker rand in…
Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…
The OPEC 2.0 supply cuts announced over the weekend will be fundamentally bullish international crude oil prices. According to our model, brent will cross the USD 100/bbl mark by August this year. We believe the cohort is pre-…
High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.
Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…