China’s Q3 GDP growth data surprised to the upside. It accelerated to 3.9% y/y from 0.4% y/y in Q2, beating expectations of 3.3% y/y, and returned to growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis following a contraction in Q2.…
Taiwanese export orders are signaling a deterioration in global manufacturing activity. They relapsed in September, declining by 3.1% y/y following a brief 2% rebound in the prior month. In particular, orders to China dropped by…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay underweight Indonesian stocks in EM and Emerging Asian equity portfolios. Indonesian stocks have sharply outperformed the Emerging…
Chinese headline CPI inflation accelerated from 2.5% y/y to 2.8% y/y in September. However, this headline figure overstates the extent of price pressures in the Chinese economy. The increase was led by an 8.8% y/y rise in food…
A country’s external balance remains one of the key pillars of the longer-term trend for the exchange rate. In this week’s report, we look at the developments in global basic balances, and their implications for currency strategy.
BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team’s view remains that US inflation will prove to be sticky. That said, in this report, we examine under what conditions a considerable drop in US core inflation, whenever it transpires, would be…
Chinese credit growth largely beat expectations in September. New yuan loans increased by 2.47 trillion, nearly double the prior month’s 1.25 trillion and significantly above expectations of 1.8 trillion. Similarly, the…