Asian currencies have strengthened in recent months, with the ADXY index up 7.8% since the beginning of November. These gains reflect broad-based dollar weakness: the DXY Index has fallen 8.2% over this period. Dollar dynamics…
Chinese GDP growth slowed sharply from 8.4% in 2021 to 3.0% in 2022. Moreover, the economy remained weak in Q4, with GDP growth softening from 3.9% q/q in Q3 to 0.0% q/q (from 3.9% y/y to 2.9% y/y). However, the deterioration in…
China's reopening is much more positive for the Chinese economy than it is for the rest of the world, as it will boost its domestic service sector activity and consumer spending much more than the industrial economy. A slowdown in…
Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.
In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?
Taiwanese equities have rallied 27% since late-October, outperforming the global benchmark by 18.3% and their emerging market peers by 6.3%. To the extent that the IT sector accounts for 68% of the Taiwanese index’s weight…
The December increase in China’s CPI inflation rate raises the question of whether deflationary pressures are likely to recede as the country’s economy reopens. Notably, the core figure increased for the first time…
Why will Chinese consumer spending recover but not its industrial sectors? Will China's reopening boost the global business cycle and inflation? How fast will US core inflation fall and what are the implications for corporate profits…