Dovish comments by several Fed officials contributed to a Treasury rally and improvement in sentiment towards risk assets on Tuesday. Globally, rumors that Beijing is planning to unleash more stimulus supported Chinese financial…
Hamas’s attack on Israel raises the odds of a wider conflict in the Gulf, which would lead to higher oil prices. Given the response of oil prices Monday, markets appear to be relatively restrained in their assessment of a sharp…
Volatility will remain the key dynamic in oil markets in the aftermath of the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. The risk of a major oil supply shock has gone up, but meanwhile supply constraints will remain at…
EM currencies have gotten caught up in the risk off sentiment across global financial markets. The JP Morgan Emerging Markets currency index has fallen to a new record low amid the US dollar’s ongoing appreciation. While…
We present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2023.
The Caixin and NBS PMIs sent mixed signals about Chinese economic conditions in September. The NBS results surprised to the upside on the back of slightly greater-than-anticipated increases in both the manufacturing (+0.5 to…
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven…
Emerging Market equities have been in a broad trading range all year. The MSCI index peaked on January 26, then bottomed in mid-March before recouping nearly all of its losses over the subsequent months. However, after nearly…
The bear market in US bonds will likely end with a bang rather than a whimper. Even during the secular US bond bull market of 1982-2021, cyclical bond bear markets ended only after an eruption of financial turmoil. It would be…
The unexpected increase in Chinese industrial profits in August sent a positive signal about the economy. Industrial profits posted its first year-over-year increase since the second half of last year, surging by 17.2% y/y…