Chinese industrial profit growth surged to 10.2% y/y in the first two months of the year after having contracted by 2.3% in 2023. Does this rebound in profits suggest that investors should become more optimistic about the Chinese…
In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.
The Chinese yuan slide sharply against the US dollar on Friday, breaching the 7.2 level. The weakness comes after the PBOC loosened its hold on the currency by setting a weaker-than-anticipated daily fixing. The move…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, although certain Chinese industries and individual EM economies are growing briskly, overall EM growth will remain tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.…
Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the adjustment in China’s real estate sector is not over. Odds are that the property market will contract for the fourth year in a row. The property…
Deflation remains prevalent in the Chinese economy. The longer authorities delay a big bang-type stimulus, the more entrenched deflation will become. Hence, a cyclical upswing in Chinese stocks is unlikely, although there might be…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay cautious with respect to all Turkish assets. Over the past year, the Turkish Central Bank raised the policy rate significantly, from 8.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the impact of the global savings glut is among the four structural trends that will drive EM debt going forward. As an asset traditionally further out on the…
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the selloff in the price of iron ore – which is down 25.4% year-to-date – is sending a pessimistic signal on China’s economy, suggesting that the current rally in Chinese…