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Emerging Markets

The Surge In Chinese Exports Is Likely Unsustainable
Chinese export growth in USD terms accelerated from 7.0% y/y to a larger-than-expected 8.7% in August. China’s exports to its major trading partners (US, EU and ASEAN) were all growing in August on a year-on-year basis, though at a decelerating pace in the US…
Daily Insights
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Heed Warnings From Market Undercurrents

The undercurrents of global financial markets signal deteriorating global growth conditions. There is little cash on the sidelines in the US, the Euro Area, and Japan. If the budding bear market resembles the 2000-2003 one, EM stock prices are unlikely to outperform global equities in the initial leg but could outperform in the latter stage of the global selloff.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Chinese Deflation Pressures Worsened In August
China’s CPI and PPI both surprised to the downside in August. Consumer prices grew from 0.5% y/y to 0.6%, below the 0.7% anticipated. However, a 2.8% y/y surge in food prices (the fastest pace so far this year) overstates this headline figure. Core CPI…
Daily Insights
Bifurcated Demand For Semiconductors
Global semiconductor stocks have returned 50% YTD in USD terms, and a whopping 200% since their September 2022 lows. However, they may have peaked back in July. Our Emerging Market strategists highlight a significant bifurcation between the revenues of…
Daily Insights
LEIs Are Declining In A Majority Of Countries
BCA’s Global Leading Economic Indicator, a GDP-weighted average of the standardized leading indicators of 23 DM and EM economies, has had a good track record of predicting year-on-year changes in the IMF global real GDP growth series. The Global LEI has…
Daily Insights
Central Banks Are Still Accumulating Gold
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, central banks will continue to be a key source of gold demand. Central bank purchases in the first half of this year exceeded first-half purchases in every year they’ve been tracked going…
Daily Insights
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Cuts Are Coming, But At What Pace?

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
What To Watch
Daily Insights
China Is Stockpiling High-End Memory Chips
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy Service, China has been accumulating high-value memory semiconductors in anticipation of further US restrictions. Since October 2022, the US has been tightening rules that would limit China’s progress…
Daily Insights
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The Global Semi Industry: AI Haves And Have Nots

There has been a decoupling within the global semiconductor industry. Demand for AI and advanced chips has been booming. Yet, sales of legacy and non-AI semiconductors have failed to recover. Given their spectacular run-up, share prices of high-end and AI-chip producers might continue selling off even if their sales continue to grow rapidly.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Qingyun Xu, Arthur Budaghyan

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