Investors should buy protection against further volatility. The shakeup in early August was a taste of things to come. The US election is a pivotal moment in modern history that will drive up uncertainty, while other countries take…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity and Energy Strategy service, soft oil demand growth raises the likelihood that OPEC+ will back down from its plan to begin unwinding some of its production cuts later this year. However…
EM equities have dramatically underperformed their US and Eurozone peers in USD terms over the past 15 years. The inability of EM and EM Asia companies to grow their EPS largely explains EM equities “lost decade” (and…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, while the idea that Donald Trump would allow China to build factories in the US does not mesh with the contemporary media narrative, it would fit the historical track…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. They rebounded sharply in July from a previous contraction, largely…
"There's no supply chain in the world that's more critical to us than China." — Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, March 2024 According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy and Emerging Market…
China’s economic malaise extended through the month of July. The contraction in property investment worsened (-10.2% YTD y/y) and disappointed expectations of a slower pace of decline. Residential property sales remained…
The current Fed easing cycle will likely be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. The basis is our expectation that the US economy is heading into a rough landing. The primary driver of EM currencies is not US interest rates…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, US policy will have an impact on China’s willingness to adopt a preemptively hawkish foreign policy. But the US is in the middle of a chaotic election that…