Foreign debt obligations (FDO) – the sum of short-term claims, interest payments and amortization over the next 12 months – stand at $180 billion, equivalent to 78% of Brazil’s annual exports. Problematically,…
The Indian government resorted to an unexpected large corporate income tax cut last week. The government reduced the effective corporate tax rate from 35% to around 25%. If domestic bond yields rise materially in response to…
Last week’s tax cut will result in a widening of India’s public deficit. The resulting increase in security issuance will put upward pressure on local bond yields. The central government’s overall fiscal…
Highlights President Trump’s support among Republicans and lack of smoking gun evidence will prevent his removal from office. Trade risk will increase if Trump’s approval benefits from impeachment proceedings and the U.S.…
Highlights We are upgrading Indian stocks from underweight to neutral within an EM equity portfolio. Nevertheless, the outlook for the absolute performance of Indian share prices remains downbeat. Odds are that local bond yields will…
Highlights U.S. growth will soon rebound thanks to robust drivers of domestic activity, and strengthening money and credit trends. The U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain an easing bias and will expand its balance sheet again. A…
While the growth rate in investable earnings per share has slowed significantly over the past year, it has merely fallen to zero and not deeply into negative territory. In BCA’s China Investment Strategy’s view,…
Two factors support our baseline view: The direct impact from tariffs on the Chinese economy is limited. Evidence suggests some Chinese exports have been re-routed to peripheral countries to avoid U.S. import tariffs. This…
According to KSA officials, repairs to the damaged 7-million-barrel-per-day processing facility at Abqaiq will mostly be completed by month-end. Relative to last month, we are not changing our price forecasts much, with Brent…