Highlights There is a tentative decline in geopolitical risk: An orderly Brexit or no Brexit is the likely final outcome and the U.S.-China talks are coming together. The outstanding geopolitical risks still warrant caution on global…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular Weekly Report this week, tomorrow we will be publishing a joint Special Report on the Chinese automobile industry outlook with our Emerging Markets Strategy service, authored by my colleague Ellen…
The U.S. and China held the thirteenth round of trade negotiations last week after a summer replete with punitive measures, threats, and failed restarts. Tensions spiked just ahead of the talks. But Friday afternoon, President…
The Xi administration is not without its own constraints. Our proxies for China’s marginal propensity to consume show that Chinese animal spirits are still vulnerable, particularly on the household side, which has not…
Highlights Geopolitical risks are starting to abate as a result of material constraints influencing policymakers. China needs to ensure its economy bottoms and a debt-deflationary tendency does not take hold. President Trump needs to…
With respect to equity leadership rotation, it is crucial to note that equity leadership rotations typically occur during or after bear markets and/or corrections in global share prices. The chart above illustrates EM stock…
On August 20th, the PBoC launched a new loan prime rate (LPR) system, a revamped reference regime for setting bank loan interest rates. In September, the new LPR rate for one-year bank loans was lowered by five basis points.…
The LPR rate is essentially the MLF rate plus bank profit margins. The market will guide the top line lending rate, while the PBoC will have control over the floor rate (MLF) through open market operations. The fact that the PBoC…