Highlights The U.S. and China are moving toward formalizing a trade ceasefire that reduces geopolitical risk in the near term. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is finished – removing a major downside to European assets. Spanish…
Highlights Analysis on Chile is available below. EM local bond yields have decoupled from their traditional macro drivers. This could be a sign that EM domestic bonds are entering a New Normal. We refer to a New Normal for EM local…
Highlights Shifting Trends: The factors that have driven bond yields lower throughout 2019 – slowing growth, rising uncertainty, demand for safe assets and dovish monetary policy expectations – have all started to turn in a…
Indian petroleum consumption growth has decelerated significantly on the back of slumps in Indian domestic spending and economic activity. Specifically, vehicle purchases and industrial sectors have been hit hard. These…
If Turkey is the loser, who is the winner? First, Trump, who benefits from fulfilling a campaign pledge to reduce U.S. involvement in foreign wars – a stance that will ultimately be rewarded (or at least not punished) by a…
Turkey’s incursion into Syria is an attempt by President Erdogan to confront the battle-hardened Syrian Kurds and prevent a Kurdish-controlled continuous border with Syria, and to distract from his weakened domestic position…
One risk to a favorable resolution to the trade war is that China will increasingly see Trump as desperate to make a deal. This could lead the Chinese to take a hardline stance in the negotiations. While this risk cannot be…
Reluctance to purchase a car and curtailed financing are the causes of the deep auto sales contraction in China. These factors remain intact. First, our indicator for household marginal propensity to spend continues to fall,…
Chinese real GDP annual growth for Q3 fell to 6%, the lowest rate since 1992. September fixed-asset investment fell to 5.4%. Industrial production rebounded to 5.8% from 4.4% but remains in a downtrend. This is not a pretty…
Highlights The interim “phase 1” trade agreement reached last week represents a significant step forward towards reaching a détente in the China-U.S. trade war. Regardless of what happens next in the Brexit…