The motive for the buy stop on the EM Equity Index is the number of bullish market signals that currently suggest the global equity rally could be sustainable, and hence playable. First, DM share prices have been trading…
One can explain this equity rally as being driven by subsiding fears of a US recession, Federal Reserve easing and the improvement on the US-China trade front. While these are notable events, our Emerging Markets Strategy…
Highlights The slowdown in global industrial activity appears to have bottomed. This, along with an apparent shared desire for a ceasefire in the Sino-US trade war, points toward a measured recovery in manufacturing and global trade,…
Highlights Please note that we will publish a Special Report on the Asian semiconductors cycle on Monday November 11. The risk to our negative stance on EM stocks is that DM share prices will continue advancing, pulling EM equities…
Chinese 10-year government bond yields have risen roughly 15 bps over the past month, and are now 30 bps off of their mid-August low. Many market participants view Chinese government bond yields as a leading growth barometer, but…
Highlights While the Caixin PMI is pointing to improving economic conditions, other data series still reflect weak growth. China’s business cycle is likely to bottom in Q1 of next year, rather than in Q4. The failure of…
Pieces are falling into place for Mexican stocks to outperform the EM equity benchmark on a sustainable basis, for the following reasons: First, long-lasting outperformance by Mexican local currency bonds and corporate credit…
The key question for asset allocators over coming months will be when (or, perhaps, whether) the global manufacturing cycle will turn up. This would trigger a move into more cyclically sensitive markets, for example euro zone…
Our technology model has predicted well periods of tech sector outperformance over the past several years. The model suggests that, in addition to being negatively related to prior overbought conditions, periods of technology…
Martin Barnes and I spent last week visiting clients in Hong Kong and Singapore in celebration of BCA’s 70th anniversary. Martin has been with BCA Research for 32 years and has been a keen observer of market trends for much longer…