China’s October housing market data highlighted three points: housing sales are modestly improving, the pace of housing construction has again deviated from the trend in sales, and housing price appreciation is slowing in…
Highlights The Fed is the usual culprit for killing business cycles — but the Fed is on hold. This makes geopolitics the likeliest candidate to kill the cycle. The key geopolitical risks are US political turmoil, China’s…
Highlights A 400k b/d addition to OPEC 2.0’s official production cut of 1.2mm b/d will have little effect on actual supplies. The market already has seen ~ 2.0mm to 2.5mm b/d of output removed from the market via excess voluntary…
Highlights We are upgrading Pakistani equities to overweight within an EM equity portfolio. Fixed-income investors should consider purchasing 5-year local currency government bonds. The balance-of-payments adjustment is probably over…
China’s November PMIs were quite positive, which increases the odds that China’s economy is beginning its recovery. However, two phenomena point toward a bottoming in the economy in Q1 next year rather than Q4 this…
Highlights China’s PMIs continue to flash a positive signal, but the hard data trend remains negative. There has been a notable improvement in China’s cyclical sectors (versus defensives) over the past month, but broad…
China’s domestic energy sector outperforms when oil prices and domestic headline inflation rise. However, this is a behavioral relationship rather than a fundamental one. Unlike their investable peers, domestic energy…
Feature Recommended Allocation In late November, BCA Research published its 2020 Outlook titled Heading Into The End Game, an annual discussion between BCA’s managing editors and the firm’s longstanding clients Mr.…
Chinese consumer staples are a defensive sector and the most important determinant of their relative performance is their negative correlation with the broad domestic market EPS. The trend in staples relative earnings closely…