Highlights 2019 was a good year for our constraint-based method of political analysis. Trump was impeached, the trade war escalated, and China (modestly) stimulated – all as predicted. Nevertheless Trump caught us by surprise…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Wednesday, December 18th at 10:00 AM EST, where I will discuss the major investment themes and views I see playing out for 2020. This will be…
Highlights An analysis on Thailand is available below. In all scenarios of global market performance, EM will underperform DM in the first half of 2020. Absolute return investors should be mindful of downside risks in EM financial…
Highlights OPEC 2.0 agreed to cut output by another 500k b/d at its Vienna meeting last week, bringing the total official cuts by the producer coalition to 1.7mm b/d. Saudi Arabia added 400k b/d of additional voluntary cuts, bringing…
Both President Trump and President Xi will need to adjust to their respective constraints next year. Trump must sustain a strong domestic economy to increase his re-election odds. He will cater to the US economy and financial…
China’s current economic slowdown predates the trade war and is due to its domestic financial deleveraging campaign that began in early 2017. The trade war exacerbated an existing downward trend in the economy, but was not…
Overweight The handsome year-over-year SPX return will hit a zenith later this month of roughly 35%. However, putting this impressive recovery from last year’s doldrums in perspective is instructive. Tech stocks (…
Highlights We expect tensions from the Sino-US trade war to marginally ease in 2020, in the run-up to the US presidential election. The “Phase One” trade deal will likely be signed with a good possibility of some tariff…
We are upgrading Pakistani equities to overweight within the emerging markets space. Both absolute and relative valuations of Pakistani stocks appear attractive and the economy is showing early signs of stabilization The…
The government will ultimately meet the popular demands of protesters, albeit not immediately. We expect Chile to move towards a Welfare State-style of government. Under a Welfare State system, the government prioritizes the…