Highlights The coronavirus is a real threat for the global economy and financial markets: We expect that the epidemic will be contained before it takes too much of a bite out of global output, but it has become the biggest market wild…
Highlights The coronavirus is likely to cut global growth in half (from 3.3% to 1.7%) during the first quarter of 2020. Investors should brace for a slew of profit warnings over the coming weeks from companies with significant…
Yesterday, BCA's Emerging Markets Strategy service argued that ongoing deflationary pressures in Malaysia are bearish for the MYR in the short-term. However, the Malaysian currency will sell off less than other EM currencies. Moreover…
Highlights Base metals appear to be pricing the impact of the Chinese 2019-nCoV coronavirus in line with the 2003 SARS outbreak. We expect an earlier peak in reported (ex-Hubei) cases than is currently discounted by markets, implying…
Highlights Malaysian businesses and households have been deleveraging and the economy risks entering a debt deflation spiral. This macro-backdrop is bond bullish. EM fixed income-dedicated investors should keep an overweight position…
Yesterday, BCA's China Investment Strategy service weighed in on the nCoV outbreak and its impact on market sentiment. While Hubei is experiencing an acceleration in the daily rate of new cases, the number of new cases across the rest…
Dear clients, Over the next couple of weeks, we will be further analyzing China’s coronavirus outbreak, its economic impact, and the likely policy response, as well as the attendant investment recommendations. We will also examine…
Highlights Global Growth Fears: Efforts to contain the China coronavirus outbreak risk creating the outcome that investors feared most in 2019 from the US-China trade war – weaker global growth and a severe disruption to supply…
Feature Everyone’s asset-allocation plans for the year have been disrupted by the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Our view is that, while the virus is serious and will hurt the Chinese and global economy in the short term,…
Asia’s economic recovery is broadening, as evidenced by the rebound in the region’s Economic Diffusion Index. Obviously, the outbreak of 2019-nCoV will delay the full blossoming of this trend, but the underlying…