Indonesian stocks have lagged the overall emerging market complex, and the potential of a playable rally in the near term remains quite dim. The economy is facing strong deflationary pressures, with both headline and core…
Highlights Global equities have benefited from the fact that the number of new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases continues to drift lower. Falling bond yields have also supported stocks. Nevertheless, risks remain. Even if the outbreak…
Highlights The COVID-19-induced demand shock in China – and a stronger USD – will reduce growth in global crude oil consumption to just over 1mm b/d this year, vs. earlier expectations of ~ 1.4mm b/d. Significant fiscal and…
Highlights Analyses on Asian semis, Argentina and Russia are available on pages 7, 12 and 14, respectively. The most likely trajectory for Chinese growth will be as follows: the initial plunge in business activity will be…
The USD/KRW is trading at a nearly 10% premium to its Purchasing Power Parity equilibrium. Historically, when investors exchange the won at such a discount, they often benefit from FX appreciation in addition to the yield. We do…
Yesterday, BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service concluded that outside of the epicenter (Hubei), the Covid-19 outbreak may have peaked. Chinese stocks in both onshore and offshore markets have recovered more than…
Highlights Chinese policymakers will deliver more growth-supporting measures in the coming months, but Chinese government bond yields have already priced in a much weaker economic slowdown and a more aggressive policy response. While…
The global growth slowdown, the US-China trade war, the Hong Kong protests, and finally, COVID-19 have all dealt a severe blow to the HK economy. Naturally, fears have erupted along the way about whether the HKD peg will be able…
On Monday, the People’s Bank Of China cut interest rates by ten basis points on loans offered via its medium-term lending facility. This move validates our ongoing belief that stimulus will be powerful and forthcoming…
Highlights Why did S&P 500 profit margins fall in 2019?: Compensation gains, trade tensions and spotty growth were the most likely culprits, though the absence of standardized disclosure hinders full attribution. Was it a one-off…