Highlights The global economy is in the midst of a painful recession. Monetary and fiscal authorities are responding forcefully to the crisis, but the lengths of the lockouts and quarantines remain a major source of downside risk…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service's analysis concluded that increased special bond issuance, loosening public-private-partnerships (PPP) restrictions, and possible Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL)…
The selloff in Brazilian financial markets has been vicious. A bottom might not be too far away given the 57% drop in large cap and a 62% drop in small cap stocks in US dollar terms since their peak. However, downside risks…
EM currencies such as the BRL or the MXN made new all-time lows last week. Is it time to move capital into EM FX? Valuations are the best indicator of long-term returns for currencies. They are also a tool to gauge sentiment.…
Highlights As the global economy moves toward shut-down, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia will be forced to end their market-share war and focus on shoring up their economies and tending to their populations’ welfare…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service continued to recommend shorting a basket of EM currencies – BRL, CLP, ZAR, IDR, PHP and KRW – versus the US dollar. The selloff in both global and EM…
Highlights Our short EM equity index recommendation has reached our target and we are booking profits on this trade. The halt to economic activity will produce a global recession that will be worse than the one that took place in late…