BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service conducted an EM foreign debt vulnerability assessment based on foreign debt obligations (FDOs) and foreign funding requirements (FFRs). The FDO compares annualized US dollar export…
When COVID-19 first emerged and closed the Chinese economy in Late January and February, many commentators worried that it would be an inflationary shock as it would result in an (albeit temporary) inward shift in the global…
The above table presents a breakdown of the subcomponents of our BCA Market-Based China Growth Indicator. The indicator has rebounded since March 23 alongside the US and global stock prices, and the table highlights the change in…
China’s real Q1 GDP growth was, unsurprisingly, weak. Year-on-year growth came in at -6.8%, and seasonally-adjusted quarterly growth was -9.8%. The true surprise was the weakness of the March industrial production and…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service combed through the capabilities of ASEAN and India to determine which country would win the battle against COVID-19. We compare the risk of critical illness in…
At first, China’s March trade numbers represented a positive surprise for the global economy. In USD terms, Chinese exports only contracted 6.6% on the year (versus expectations of -13.9%) and imports contracted by a mere 0…
Last Friday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service assessed that the risk of another major Sino-US clash has risen. As President Trump comes to realize he is losing his grip on power, he will have an incentive to…
After the recent update to China’s credit and money numbers, it is clear that Beijing is working increasingly hard to support domestic activity, as the cut in the interest rate on excess reserves forewarned. In March,…