Feature The key to how markets will move over the coming 12 months is whether the coronavirus pandemic turns out to be a short-term (albeit severe) disruption to the world economy, or something more fundamentally damaging. Markets…
BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service recommends that investors short the Turkish lira versus the US dollar and equity investors underweight Turkish equities and credit relative to their respective benchmarks.…
Highlights China is taking advantage of global chaos to solidify its sphere of influence – beginning with Hong Kong. The crisis is also motivating the European Union to link arms more tightly through a symbolic step toward…
Yesterday, BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service analyzed the lack of an annual economic growth target in the Government Work Report (GWR). The GWR set targets for this year’s urban job creation and…
Highlights This year’s NPC refrained from announcing a numeric economic growth target. However, the targeted employment growth will be a reliable indicator of the government’s pain threshold. The announced stimulus…
An analysis on Turkey is available below. Highlights Due to the sizable stimulus announced by the NPC, we are upgrading our outlook for Chinese growth for this year. Nevertheless, in terms of investment strategy, we are…
Highlights Risk assets continue to ignore the dire state of the economy. “Don’t fight the Fed” will dictate investment policy for the coming months. Populism and supply-chain diversification will…
The contraction in Chinese industrial profits is abating. Their annual growth rate rebounded from -34.9% in March to -4.3% in April. On a year-to-date basis, profit growth is also recovering, albeit more slowly. Two factors…
Recently, BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service explored a three-pronged framework to think about EM exchange rates versus the US dollar in a world awash with QE. First, EM currencies in aggregate will continue…
BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service argues that China is susceptible to a series of historic shifts accelerated by the pandemic. China no longer primarily channels its savings into export manufacturing. Instead it invests…