Highlights Economic data in August point to a faster recovery in demand than in production. The service-sector recovery is picking up speed; consumption growth remains negative, but will benefit from a steady rebound in the service…
Highlights The dollar has entered a structural bear market but is at risk of a countertrend bounce. The catalyst for such a bounce will be the underperformance of G10 economies, specifically the euro area relative to the US.…
Highlights EM domestic fundamentals, global trade and commodities prices, as well as global financial market themes are the main drivers of EM financial assets and currencies. The positive effect of improving global growth and rising…
Historically, strong gold prices have coincided with an outperformance of EM equities, but not this time. Can the divergence between gold and EM stocks continue? The strong correlation between the relative performance of EM…
China’s NBS PMI painted a picture of a bifurcated economy in August. While the Composite PMI rose to 54.5 from 54.1, the Manufacturing index softened slightly to 51 from 51.1. Nonetheless, the Non-Manufacturing gauge rose…
BCA Research’s Emerging Market Strategy (EMS) service published a report arguing that excessive stimulus and easy money policies — we refer to these as soft-budget constraints — bode ill for share prices…
Highlights US-China relations in 2020 consist of a gentleman’s agreement to keep the Phase One trade deal in place and aggressive maneuvering in every other policy area. Stimulus is unlikely to be curtailed in the US or China…
Dear clients, China Investment Strategy will take a summer break next week. We will resume our publication on September 9th. Best regards, Jing Sima, China Strategist Highlights The threat of US sanctions has sparked fears…
Since 2018, China has been promoting its own domestic cross-border interbank settlement system (CIPS). It is not BCA Research's baseline view that the US will cut off Chinese banks entirely from access to the US Clearing…