According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, a relapse in oil prices and forthcoming fiscal austerity in Russia will dampen the rebound in domestic demand while keeping a lid on inflation. Authorities…
We noted in an Insight earlier this week that the recent outperformance of emerging market stocks has been almost entirely due to China's outperformance, given that the relative performance of EM ex-China versus the global…
BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service has argued that the Proposal from China’s 14th Five-Year Plan does not change our cyclical view on Chinese assets. The 14th Five-Year Plan has more strategic…
The 14th Five-Year Plan has more strategic importance than in the past decade. Spending on national defense, technological self-sufficiency, public welfare and green energy will likely see substantial increases under the guidelines…
EM stocks have rallied relative to global stocks over the past month, but this rally masks underlying dynamics. The chart above shows that this rally has been due almost entirely to the outperformance of Chinese stocks, as the…
PMI indexes are coincident rather than leading indicators, but they are timely and often act as important confirming indicators. In this regard, the October update to the Caixin manufacturing PMI suggests that the uptrend in…
Highlights A Biden victory with a Republican Senate (28% odds) poses the greatest risk to the global reflation trade. The US is the most susceptible to social unrest of all the developed markets. Europe is stable relative to the US,…
BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service believes that the risk-off period in global markets will continue in the near run, i.e., there will be dusk before a sunrise. Hence, investors should maintain dry powder at the…
Highlights Global risk assets have more downside in the near term. The US dollar is primed to rebound. Without major fiscal stimulus in the US, the upside in the greenback will be substantial. China’s business cycle recovery…
Your feedback is important to us. Please take our client survey today. Highlights Mounting populism has created a structural tailwind behind inflation. The risk that inflation accelerates quickly is greater than the market…