Highlights The incidents of state-owned enterprise (SOE) bond defaults late last year reflected deteriorating corporate balance sheets and exposed local governments’ weakening fiscal positions. Both were preexisting conditions…
Chinese money supply decelerated in December, disappointing consensus expectations of a much more muted slowdown. M1 money supply grew 8.6% y/y, down from 10.0% y/y in November, and M2 decelerated to 10.1% y/y from 10.7% y/y.…
China’s consumer and producer prices surprised to the upside in December, pointing to continued support from China’s recovering business cycle. Headline CPI rose 0.2% y/y after declining 0.5% y/y in November. Core CPI…
EM Asian equities have enjoyed an outsized outperformance versus EM ones in general and Latin American ones in particular over the past 12 years. This trend is under threat. From 2010 to early 2020, the relative…
Highlights Markets largely ignored the uproar at the US Capitol on January 6 because the transfer of power was not in question. Democratic control over the Senate, after two upsets in the Georgia runoff, is the bigger signal. US…
Highlights An uninterrupted advance in reflation trades will be possible if the FOMO (fear of missing out) evolves into a full-blown mania. This scenario cannot be ruled out especially with retail investors around the world continuing…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, China’s business cycle will remain resilient in the first half of 2021 while existing stimulus measures continue to work their way into the real economy.…
South Korean equities had a spectacular run in 2020 and are continuing the rally this year, with the KOSPI up another 3% so far. The bourse was a favorite in the early days of the pandemic due to the Korean government’s…
Feature Chart 1Stock Prices Are Struggling To Break Out Of Their Recent Highs Stock prices in China's onshore and offshore markets rallied into the New Year (Chart 1). Despite the strong performance in the last couple of…