EM breakeven inflation rates have been steadily declining relative to the US. This is a very important dynamic. Flows into EM are very sensitive to the inflation outlook, and the perception of declining inflation risk invites…
The outlook for the US domestic economy is brightening. The worst of the latest surge in COVID-19 infections is behind us while the rollout of vaccines is gathering pace. This improvement is being registered in the counter…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the Turkish financial markets are currently in a sweet spot, but a long-lasting rally in the Turkish lira is unlikely. In the near term, this advantageous…
Highlights Copper prices will continue to rally, following a surge this week to highs not seen since early 2013 on the back of falling inventories, particularly in China, where physical demand has taken stocks to their lowest levels in…
Chinese price indices were mixed in January. Consumer prices surprised to the downside with a 0.3% y/y decline in the CPI. Similarly, core CPI continued its descent, declining to -0.3% y/y, the lowest since late-2009. Meanwhile,…
Dear client, On behalf of the China Investment Strategy team, I would like to wish you a very happy, healthy, and prosperous Chinese New Year of the Ox (Bull)! Gong Xi Fa Chai, Jing Sima, China Strategist Highlights A…
On the surface, China’s credit numbers were surprisingly strong in January. Aggregate financing was CNY 5.17 trillion from a revised CNY 1.72 trillion in December, significantly above expectations of CNY 4.60 trillion. New…
Korean equities have benefited greatly from booming retail investor demand, which has caused the KOSPI to more than double since mid-March. But the index has been trading sideways since the beginning of the year. What will the…