Highlights The multiple paid for oil sector profits is collapsing because the market fears that the profits slump will not be short-lived. The fear is not just of a lasting hit to aviation and a slower recovery in road mobility, but…
Taiwanese export orders – a bellwether for the global manufacturing cycle – surged in January, corroborating the message from Korean exports earlier this week. Total export orders accelerated 49.3% y/y, following a…
After having stagnated last year, the Chilean peso is recovering smartly, following copper prices higher. As the world’s top producer of the red metal, Chile’s currency typically benefits from favorable copper market…
Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to replace Petrobras’ CEO is dashing hopes of Brazil’s return to economic orthodoxy. The president’s action came amid fears of a truckers strike on the back of…
South Korea’s exports for the first 20 days of February are signaling a sharp rebound in global trade. Exports surged 16.7% y/y, marking the fastest pace since late 2018. The global shortage of chips pushed Korea’s…
China’s current account surplus jumped to $130.2 billion in Q4 2020 from $92.2 billion in the prior quarter. This corroborates the thesis that thus far, the supply-side has been doing the bulk of the heavy lifting in China…
Highlights Both the US and Iran have the intention and capability of restoring the 2015 nuclear deal so investors should presume that an escalation in tensions will conclude with a new arrangement by August this year. However, the…
At its Thursday meeting, Indonesia’s central bank cut its policy benchmark by 25 basis points and relaxed lending rules as it downgraded the economic outlook and trimmed its forecast for bank lending growth. The seven-day…
Global equity valuations are at a level where they are very sensitive to changes in the discount rate. Chart 1 shows that the cyclically-adjusted earnings yield on the S&P 500 is slightly below its 2000 low. Equity investors have thus…
News that China is once more considering export restrictions on rare earth minerals in an effort to harm US defense contractors, is just another instance of US-China tensions. China’s outsized influence on the global supply…