In the second half of the year, global growth will be bifurcated. On one hand, monetary and fiscal stimulus in the US, and to a lesser extent Europe, will remain ultra-accommodative and will support their economic recoveries. On…
The Bank of Russia raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.0% on Friday, 25 bps more than expected. The central bank also increased its 2021 inflation forecast to 4.7-5.2% and argued that inflationary risks…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, EM banks will underperform their DM peers in the next six months. Banks in emerging markets outside China, Korea, and Taiwan (Province of China) will…
Highlights Higher copper prices will follow in the wake of China's surge in steel demand, which lifted Shanghai steel futures to an all-time high just under 5,200 RMB/MT earlier this month, as building and infrastructure projects…
South Korea’s exports suggest that the global trade recovery is intact. Exports surged 45.4% y/y for the first 20 days in April following a 12.5% y/y increase in March. On an average working day basis, export increased by…
China’s GDP release shows the economy growing by a colossal 18.3% y/y in Q1. However, this figure is highly distorted by the pandemic-induced economic collapse last year. Instead, the quarter-on-quarter comparison reveals a…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is rising once again after a big drop-off in risk during the pandemic and snapback. The Biden administration faces three critical foreign policy tests: China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran.…
The Mexican economy was hit by a perfect storm in the last few years. But the stars are now beginning to align. The country’s growth headwinds – sluggish productivity, lack of investment, tight fiscal and monetary…