Note: An update on Peru is available on page 10. Highlights The longer it takes the Colombian government to drastically expand fiscal policy and increase social benefits, the higher the risk that next year’s presidential…
On a month-on-month basis, Chinese credit was relatively stable in May. Aggregate financing was flat at CNY 1.92 trillion versus CNY 1.85 trillion in April. Similarly, CNY 1.5 trillion worth of new yuan loans were extended,…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is trickling back into financial markets. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse collapsed again. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is ticking back up after the sharp drop from 2020. All of our…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service recommends that investors overweight the KOSPI within an EM equity portfolio. Korean share prices have been moving sideways in recent months. Margin loans for security…
Highlights US labor-market disappointments notwithstanding, the global recovery being propelled by real GDP growth in the world's major economies is on track to be the strongest in 80 years. This growth will fuel commodity demand,…
Highlights As commodity inflation subsides, so will broader inflation. As broader inflation subsides, so will inflation expectations – because inflation expectations just follow realised inflation. Overweight US T-bonds versus…
Chinese producer prices surprised to the upside in May, jumping to a 13-year high of 9.0% y/y from 6.8% y/y, above the expected 8.5% y/y. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures were much more muted for Chinese consumers. The 12.0%…
Highlights In the near term, the RMB against the US dollar has ceased to be a one-way bet. Market sentiment will re-focus on economic fundamentals, which are less supportive of further RMB appreciation. In the longer term, the…
Mexico’s midterm elections yielded a positive outcome for Mexican assets over the weekend. Preliminary estimates by the National Electoral Institute indicate that left-wing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (…
China’s trade surplus widened for the second consecutive month in May, rising to $45.5 billion from $42.9 billion. Exports decelerated to 27.9% y/y from April’s 32.3% y/y, while imports accelerated to 51.1% y/y from…