China’s energy crunch is spilling over into metal markets. Chinese steelmakers – which already face seasonal production curbs to curtail emissions during the winter months – are now being forced to lower output amid the…
Emerging market currencies have recently rolled over in early-June and are depreciating sharply vis-à-vis the US dollar. Odds are that this downtrend will continue. On the domestic front, it is true that many Emerging Market…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The global economy will continue to grow at an above-trend rate over the next 12 months and central banks will remove accommodation only slowly.But the second year of a bull market is often…
Highlights The fourth quarter will be volatile as China still poses a risk of overtightening policy and undermining the global recovery. US political risks are also elevated. A debt default is likely to be averted in the end. Fiscal…
The performance of USD/CNY can often be explained by relative rates. The widening of the China-US yield differential in the second half of last year coincided with a sharp appreciation in the CNY vis-à-vis the USD. However, this…
China’s NBS and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs sent a contradictory signal for September. The official manufacturing index slipped into contractionary territory after declining 0.5 points to 49.6. Consensus estimates anticipated a…
HighlightsThe power shortage in China due to depleted coal inventories and low hydro availability will push copper and aluminum inventories lower, as refineries there – which account for roughly one-half of global capacity – are shut to…
Highlights The global fight against the Delta variant of COVID-19 continued to show progress in the month of September, but not without cost. Growth in services activity slowed meaningfully, which has likely delayed the return to…
Highlights Evergrande has not only crossed regulatory gridlines but also regulators’ bottom lines; the government will use the example of Evergrande to impose discipline on real estate developers. The policy response will likely…