Chinese industrial profits grew 5.0% y/y in the first two months of this year – marking a slight acceleration from December’s 4.2% y/y increase. Nevertheless, the profit expansion is significantly below the average 13…
By mid-last week, the Hang Seng Tech index had gained 37% over six trading days amid investor optimism of receding regulatory risk. However, the rally appeared to fizzle towards the end of the week. A statement on Thursday from…
Executive Summary Petrocurrencies Have Lagged Terms Of Trade Petrocurrencies have lagged the surge in crude prices. This has been specific to the currency space since energy stocks have been in an epic bull market.Both cyclical and…
BCA Research’s Emerging Market Strategy service recommends overweighting Chinese A-shares within an EM equity universe. The risk-reward profile for the A-share market has improved because of the following:…
Executive Summary EM Equity Sentiment Is Not Very Depressed Yet Chinese A-shares have become oversold, and authorities are determined to stabilize the market. Yet, downshifting corporate profits and a selloff in global…
Our China Investment Strategists have argued that Chinese policymakers will rely on fiscal stimulus to meet the 5.5% growth target for 2022. According to the team’s estimates, the fiscal thrust will be more than 2% of GDP.…
Taiwanese export orders for February sent a positive signal about the global manufacturing cycle. Taiwan’s export orders accelerated from 11.7% y/y to 21.1% y/y in February – beating expectations of a more muted 13…
Since last October, Indian stocks have been in a trading range relative to their EM counterparts. Similarly, they have not fallen much so far in absolute terms – even though foreign investors have exited this market en…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2% The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…