Emerging Markets

This report presents our interpretation of signals from the main equity, bond, and currency markets around the world. The key takeaways are: (1) Chinese stocks are behind the resilience of the EM MSCI Index; (2) Investors have become too bullish on Europe and will be disappointed; (3) The US dollar will likely rebound in the near term; (4) US long-term bond yields will be sticky in the short run; (5) The global equity selloff is not over. 

Brazilian policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. There is no combination of fiscal and monetary policies that can assure decent growth, on-target inflation, a stable exchange rate, and public debt sustainability. We recommend investors maintain an underweight allocation to Brazilian fixed-income markets versus their EM peers and continue shorting BRL versus MXN. We have been bearish on the Bovespa in absolute terms and are now downgrading Brazilian stocks from neutral to underweight within an EM equity portfolio.

The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.

Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.