Brazilian policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. There is no combination of fiscal and monetary policies that can assure decent growth, on-target inflation, a stable exchange rate, and public debt sustainability. We…
Our China strategists published a quick note on China’s property market following the release of housing data earlier this week. China’s housing market is showing early signs of stabilization after three years of crisis, though…
The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.
Outside of the real estate sector, Chinese activity was decent in January and February. Both industrial production and retail sales were slightly stronger than expected. The jobless rate ticked up to 5.4% while property investment…
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
Our Commodities strategists assessed the outlook for oil as crude remains pulled between geopolitical and fundamentals forces. OPEC+’s decision to raise oil supply is driven more by geopolitics than economics. A sustained…
Our China and Emerging Markets strategists assessed China’s outlook after the National People’s Congress concluded last week. China’s latest fiscal stimulus is only marginally larger than last year’s, with a combined credit and…
China’s February consumer prices fell 0.7% y/y after expanding on an annual basis in January. Producer price deflation stood at -2.2% y/y, roughly unchanged from a month prior. China’s first quarter data is heavily influenced by…
Our Emerging Markets strategists assessed Colombian assets after a significant rally. Colombia faces deep-rooted macroeconomic challenges that will not be easily reversed by a right-wing government in 2026. Public debt is on an…
Colombian financial markets have rallied on the expectation that a right-wing government will be elected in 2026. We take a contrarian bearish stance on the nation's financial markets. Colombia is suffering from two…