Executive Summary After having overspent on goods ex-autos over the past two years and experiencing contracting incomes in real terms, US and European households will reduce their purchases of goods ex-autos. Risks to global growth…
The rally in Brazilian risk assets since early this year largely reflects a catch up to the pandemic boom in commodity prices. Going forward, unless commodity prices continue rising or global risk assets rally, Brazilian equities…
Executive Summary China’s Daily New COVID Cases And City Lockdowns, 2020 To Present The ongoing wave of local Omicron infections and city lockdowns pose the largest macro risk in China post Q1 2020. The current lockdowns in…
The pulse from Singapore’s trade numbers is sending a warning for the global economy. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports as well as electronic exports eased in year-on-year terms in March. Moreover, non-oil…
Chinese policymakers are facing a dilemma. COVID-19 cases are surging and restrictions amid the zero-tolerance policy towards the virus is weighing down on economic activity (see The Numbers). To boost the economy Beijing needs…
Chinese data releases were mixed on Monday. GDP growth accelerated from 4.0% y/y to 4.8% y/y in Q1, beating expectations of 4.2% y/y. Fixed assets investment growth slowed to 9.3% y/y in the first three months of the year from…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service expects Taiwanese and Korean semi stock prices to continue falling in absolute terms. Interestingly, since early 2021 TSMC and Samsung share prices have exhibited…
Executive Summary Copper Will Remain Tight Even In Recession Supply-chain disruptions arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and demand hits from lockdowns in Shanghai are increasing the odds of a global recession,…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…