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Emerging Markets

Taiwan Dollar: The Next Phase Of Dollar Diversification
The TWD’s surge reflects a regime shift in global capital flows that supports EM Asia government bonds. Alongside other Asian currencies, the TWD has rallied sharply against the USD since late last week. While the first wave of dollar weakness mainly…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China: Waiting For The Pain
BCA’s China Investment Strategists remain defensive as China’s growth outlook is still weak. Even if some US tariff rates are rolled back, export headwinds and lagging stimulus will continue to weigh on Chinese equities. The near-term path to a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Oil: A One-Two Punch
Our Commodity strategists stay short oil and long gold as global demand weakens and OPEC+ offers no support. Brent’s floor has likely fallen to $50, and bearish supply and demand forces continue to dominate the price outlook. Crude consumption forecasts…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
MacroQuant Model Update: Stagflationary Brew

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li
MacroQuant Model Update: Stagflationary Brew

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li
Trade War: US Sectors Outlook
TP TP …
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trade War: Distinguishing Signals From (A Lot Of) Noise
Trade headlines shift too fast to interpret reliably, but cutting through the noise reveals the US is pivoting from escalation to de-escalation. As the equity and bond selloff intensified, the tone from Washington softened, suggesting political limits to how…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Buy Central European Bonds

The European economies are facing a major deflationary shock. We recommend that investors stay long a basket of Central European (CE3) domestic bonds. They should also upgrade CE3 bonds and stocks in their respective EM portfolios.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
US-China: Reconciliation, Reckoning, Or Relocation?
Our Geopolitical and GeoMacro strategists recommend buying tail-risk protection and adding exposure to manufacturing-oriented EMs as the risk of US-China military escalation rises. They now see a 10% chance of full-scale war over Taiwan and a 25% chance of a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US-China: Reconciliation, Reckoning, Or Relocation?

Upgrade the odds of a full-scale war in the Taiwan Strait from 5% to 10%. Rapid escalation of US-China economic war raises the probability of tensions spilling into the military-strategic domain. Investors should buy insurance against this tail risk while it is cheap. Meanwhile, use this year’s trade shock and equity volatility to increase allocation to EM manufacturing states.

Geopolitical Strategy, GeoMacro Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Marko Papic, Matt Gertken

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