Chinese export growth was surprisingly resilient in July. Exports grew by 18% y/y in US dollar terms, beating expectations they would decelerate to 14.1% y/y. Meanwhile, import growth disappointed at 2.3% y/y versus expectations…
Executive Summary China Copper Consumption Failed To Revive Post-Pandemic A greater-than-expected contraction in manufacturing and construction in China – evidenced by the latest PMI and home sales data – will…
Executive Summary The US economy is experiencing a period of stagflation: booming nominal economic growth amid a lack of volume expansion. Very strong nominal growth (due to high inflation), a tight labor market, and more evidence…
The New Exports Orders component of Taiwan’s Electronics & Optical Parts PMI is sending a warning about the global trade outlook. The index lost nearly 7 points and fell deeper in contractionary territory to 34, marking…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service concludes that the US-China confrontation over Taiwan could cause a dramatic escalation in strategic tensions. Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi arrived…
Highlights Chart 1Are Expectations Too Dovish? The bond market is now priced for the fed funds rate to peak at 3.44% in January and then head back down to 2.79% by the end of 2023 (Chart 1). We strongly push back against…
The Global Manufacturing PMI declined to a two-year low of 51.1 in July, from 52.2 in June indicating that global economic activity continues to lose momentum. Notably, manufacturing output stagnated in July, after having briefly…
Executive Summary Biden Can Take Risks Ahead Of Midterms News reports suggest House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan and meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in the coming days. China has promised military…
The Politburo, China’s top decision-making body, held its quarterly meeting on Thursday to assess the country’s economic performance and set the priorities for the remainder of the year. Notably, the meeting follows…