China’s aggregate financing in August tripled to a larger-than-expected CNY 2.43 tr, following a CNY 0.76 tr in July and beating expectations of CNY 2.08 tr. New bank loans doubled, reaching CNY 1.25 tr from CNY 0.68 tr,…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that the conditions do not seem to be met for a drastic change in Beijing’s dynamic zero-Covid strategy. China’s transition from zero tolerance to an…
Chinese imports and exports significantly missed expectations in August. Exports grew by 7.1% y/y in US dollar terms, down from 18.0% y/y and largely below the 13.0% y/y anticipated. Imports rose 0.3% y/y in August, down from…
Executive Summary A Structural Downshift In China’s Real Estate Investment Growth The Politburo has set a date for the much-anticipated 20th Communist Party Congress at which President Xi will most likely secure his third…
Highlights Chart 1A Hot Labor Market The balance of data that’s come out during the past month points to a labor market that is not cooling very quickly. In fact, it is cooling much more slowly than we anticipated.…
Executive Summary US Military Constraint: Strait Of Hormuz A US-Iran deal would make for a notable improvement in the geopolitical backdrop during an otherwise gloomy year. It would remove the risk of a major new oil shock…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service continues to hold a bearish view on the share prices of both onshore and offshore Chinese property developers in absolute terms and relative to China’s overall equity…
Executive Summary The US dollar has become expensive, but it is not unusual for currencies to overshoot or undershoot their fair value. Valuation is not an effective market timing tool. In the US, high interest rates and a strong…
Following a brief reprieve earlier in the month, the South African rand is once again depreciating against the US dollar. Indeed, domestic headwinds are gathering and pointing to further weakness for the South African currency…