Executive Summary The Chinese Economy Is Facing Deflationary Pressures China’s economy is facing a deflationary threat. Core consumer price inflation is below 1%, and producer (ex-factory) price inflation has…
The pulse from Singapore’s trade numbers continue to send a warning about the global trade cycle. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports fell by 3.9% m/m in August while electronic exports registered the first year-…
On the surface, Chinese industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investments appeared to improve in August. Industrial production rose by 4.2% y/y following 3.8% y/y in July, retail sales growth accelerated to 5.4% y/y…
Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…
Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…
Executive Summary Global Manufacturing / Trade Will Contract The bar for the Fed to stop hiking rates is still very high. US inflation remains broad based. Core inflation is neither about oil and food prices nor is it…
Executive Summary At the margin, the European Union’s proposed €140 billion “windfall profits” tax on electricity providers not using natural gas to generate power will blunt the message markets are sending to…
Sentix’s indicators for investor morale towards emerging market equities and bonds ticked up in August. Nevertheless, the latest readings remain extremely depressed and are consistent with pessimism towards emerging market…
Strong exports have historically benefitted Malaysia’s small, open economy, and in turn, its stock market. However, in a sharp departure from past trends, Malaysian stocks are weakening despite a massive trade bonanza.…