The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the Biden administration’s outreach to Iran will fail. The war in the Middle East has expanded as our colleagues predicted: Israel attacked Lebanon. Now…
Our quant model shows Democrats winning the election at a 56% probability, with 303 electoral college votes. But swing state economies are slowing and Democrats’ odds in Michigan fell. Trump can win with Georgia, Michigan, plus one…
Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, seven surprises with non-negligible odds could tip the scale in favor of Republicans for the White House by November 5. One of them is a war between Israel and Iran…
Investors should de-risk tactically in expectation of shocks and surprises ahead of the US election and an uncertain aftermath. Democratic victory with a gridlocked Congress is our base case but would bring minor tax hikes and…
Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now…
Democrats will not win a full sweep and implement drastic new tax hikes. However, our quant model still favors them to win the White House and just upgraded their odds. While we expect equity volatility around the election, investors…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to…