Economy
Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon and to overweight over a 6-month horizon. Structurally, however, a depletion of the global savings glut could put upward pressure on yields.
In Section I, we note that while recent inflation developments point to some supply-side and pandemic-related disinflation, they also point to potentially stickier inflation over the coming several months. The inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical outlook remains sufficiently risky that an overweight stance towards equities within a global multi-asset portfolio is not justified, and we continue to recommend a neutral stance for now. This month’s Section II is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist last year after a long and illustrious career, discusses the outlook for government debt and the possibility of an eventual crisis.
We recommend that investors use the following framework to think about whether potential disinflation would be bullish or bearish for share prices: disinflation will prove to be bullish for global share prices if it is due to an improvement in supply-side dynamics, but bearish if it is demand driven. We believe it is the latter.
It takes time for wage inflation to die. So, if 2022 was the year that central banks’ monster tightening killed bond and stock market valuations, then 2023 will be the year that it finally reaches the economy and kills profits, jobs, and the wage inflation that has so far refused to die. This means that commodity prices have substantial further downside, while healthcare relative performance has substantial further upside.
The 20<sup>th</sup> Communist Party Congress concluded on Sunday with President Xi Jinping cementing his third term in office. We are maintaining our cautious stance on Chinese stocks and the exchange rate. The lack of a significant shift away from current macro and regulatory policies means that China’s economic recovery and stock performance remain at risk.