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Economy

Too Hot, Too Cold, Both Or Neither?

A run of hot January data shook up financial markets, but we think they overreacted. We remain constructive on equities and the economy in the near term.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Chilean Stocks: The Beginning Of A Structural Outperformance?

The Chilean economy is entering a recession. Inflation will drop rapidly and the central bank will cut rates meaningfully in H2 2023. We continue to recommend a structural overweight across Chilean risk assets on the basis of falling inflation and local yields, record cheap valuations, and dissipated political volatility.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Juan Egana
How Low Can The Japanese Inflation Drop?
Last week’s Tokyo CPI release showed the first signs of modest disinflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. Headline inflation fell from 4.4% to 3.4%, in February. The ex-fresh food component also fell. That said, the core measure, that strips out both…
Daily Insights
Lumber And The Recession Debate
It is well known that recession risks usually start to manifest themselves in the most cyclical parts of the economy. These include widening junk bond spreads, where tightening credit conditions will hit the most vulnerable of borrowers, cyclical…
Daily Insights
US: Still No Recession in Sight
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s view continues to be that inflation, rather than recession, is the bigger risk for 2023. Nevertheless, even in the US where inflationary pressures are most acute, there are still significant deflationary…
Daily Insights
When To Buy The Euro?

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
When To Buy The Euro?

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Upwardly Revised Unit Labor Costs: Bad News For Stocks
Revised Q4 productivity and unit labor cost estimates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics add to the string of data released over the past month suggesting that the Fed’s task of reining in inflationary pressures is not over yet. Nonfarm productivity…
Daily Insights
Are Global Trade Dynamics Improving?
The sharp rebound in China’s NBS and Caixin PMIs indicate that manufacturing activity accelerated in February – not too surprising given that it comes on the back of the post-lockdown economic reopening. What is surprising is the jump in the new export orders…
Daily Insights
A Headfake For Sentiment?
Since the S&P 500 slid into bear market territory in June 2022, clients have frequently asked when the right time is to increase equity allocations again. A widely followed measure of investor sentiment suggests it is too early to do so. The difference…
Daily Insights

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