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Economy

Canadian Consumers And Businesses: Grim Economic Outlook
Results from the BoC’s Business Outlook and Consumer Expectations Surveys for Q1 2023 indicate that the tightening cycle is impacting the Canadian economy. The share of households reporting being financially worse off because of the interest rate hikes…
Daily Insights
Are Homebuilders Vulnerable to a Pullback?
US homebuilder stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by 29.7% since the end of Q3 2022. Meanwhile, banks have underperformed the S&P 500 over the same period, especially following their 23.3% plunge in relative term since March 1st. As a result, a gap…
Daily Insights
Can European Equities Continue To Defy Banking Sector Risks?
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the increase in the cost of capital caused by the recent period of stress in global banks will hurt European growth. The European stock market is at risk. The tightening in global credit…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing Activity Deteriorates In March
Global PMIs delivered a poor signal about manufacturing activity in March. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI ticked down from 49.9 to 49.6. It marks the seventh consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line and indicates a slightly faster pace of…
Daily Insights
March Survey Results: Sticky Inflation, Hawkish Policy, Recession
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted last week, we asked about our readers’ expectations for Fed policy and the US economy. The majority of respondents (67%) expect the Fed to end the tightening cycle in H1 and subsequently pause for the…
Daily Insights
Emerging Asian Equities Are A Play On Global Manufacturing
According to our Emerging Markets Strategy service, Asian exports will continue contracting at a double-digit rate warranting a cautious stance on emerging Asian equity markets. The New Orders component of Asian Manufacturing PMIs have failed to move above…
Daily Insights
March In Review
March was a month of two halves. The turmoil that erupted in the wake of the failures of SVB and Signature Bank led to a bout of risk-off sentiment in the first half of March. Equities sold off globally, oil prices fell, and government bonds rallied amid…
Daily Insights
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: The Consequences Of High Rates

High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Colombia: Bargain Or Value Trap?

Colombian assets are inexpensive, but they are cheap for a reason. The economy is entering a growth recession while inflation will remain sticky and above target. Further, President Gustavo Petro’s policies will lead to lower investment, rising political volatility, and public debt deterioration. Continue underweighting Colombia across all asset classes.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Juan Egana
Style Chart Pack

This week we are sending you a Style Chart Pack, which now includes a standalone macro section, as well as macro, fundamentals, valuations, technicals, and uses of cash charts for the S&P 500, Defensives vs. Cyclicals, Growth vs. Value, and Small vs. Large. In the front section of this publication, we will review recent equity performance, and attempt to answer real estate sector-related questions that are foremost in investors’ minds.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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