Economy

In this week’s report, we present our dollar view for 2024 and beyond, with a few trade ideas.

The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-cycle bounce rather than the beginning of a cyclical recovery.

Nominal household spending growth in China will slow in 2024. Strong headwinds will arise from a slower household income expansion, falling house prices, a downbeat employment outlook, and shrinking exports. Spending on healthcare services will post solid gains but durable goods consumption will experience anemic growth in 2024. We favor consumer staples and healthcare stocks versus the domestic benchmark.