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Economy

Don't Bet On A Durable Economic Rebound In China
The Caixin manufacturing PMI delivered a positive surprise about the Chinese economy in November. The PMI unexpectedly showed manufacturing activity expanded last month, breaking above the 50 boom-bust line to a three-month high of 50.7 and beating…
Daily Insights
November In Review
Global financial markets delivered exceptional gains in November. Fixed income led in terms of abnormally large returns amid a shift in the market narrative in favor of significant Fed rate cuts in 2024. Importantly, the strong performance of US investment…
Daily Insights
The Recession That Never Came?
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now the clear mainstream view. Investment…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Tight Policy Will Eventually Trigger Recession

Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
US Consumer Spending Cools In October
As expected, US personal income growth moderated from an upwardly revised 0.4% to 0.2% in October. However, disposable personal income growth experienced a less pronounced slowdown from 0.4% to 0.3% -- particularly in real terms which expanded for the first…
Daily Insights
Italy And Spain Are Outperforming In 2023
Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35.3% year-to-date surge stands out among…
Daily Insights
What Does A Deep Recession Do To Oil Prices?
BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service does not expect a global recession next year.  In practical terms, this means they are more bullish on their oil-price outlook for 2024 than the consensus and also differ with the BCA House view.  In…
Daily Insights
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How Would A Recession Impact 2024 Oil Prices?

In our simulations of fairly deep global recessions averaging -1.5% in 2024 global GDP growth, we expect OPEC 2.0 to reduce output enough to offset lost demand. Even so, we find oil prices drop ~ $22/bbl – from ~ $100/bbl in 1H24 to ~ $78/bbl in 2H24. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs to retain oil and commodity exposures.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
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Korea: On The Front Lines Of The Global Cycle

The recent increase in Korean exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle rebound within a cyclical downtrend. Korea’s households and enterprises are among the most indebted globally, and their debt service ratio is among the highest in the world. Korea’s 10-year bond yields have peaked. We discuss opportunities in Korean stocks as well as in fixed income and currency markets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Ziyuan Huang, Arthur Budaghyan
The RBNZ Joins The "Higher For Longer" Club
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its key interest rate steady at 5.5% at the November policy meeting yesterday.  That decision was as expected, but the messaging surrounding the announcement was surprisingly hawkish.  The RBNZ statement…
Daily Insights

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