Economic Growth
Germany’s IFO survey sent a downbeat message on Friday. The headline Business Climate Index fell by 1.7 points to 85.7, below expectations of 86.8 and near the 85.2 level at which it bottomed in October. A 2.4-point decline in the Current Assessment component…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, even though mainstream EM equities are cheap, their cyclical and structural growth prospects are poor. Equities of mainstream EM economies (excluding China, India, Korea and Taiwan) are reasonably…
China removed checks and balances in its political system to deal with a very dangerous economic transition. The transition is going badly, yet investors cannot rely on checks and balances to correct or prevent policy mistakes. The Taiwanese election is a looming bellwether.
In this report, we review our FX trade recommendations with suggestions on how to position for the next few months.
Nvidia’s stock price hit a fresh all-time high on Thursday after its blockbuster Q2 earnings call. The company reported it generated $13.51 billion in revenue last month (above expectations of $11.2 billion) and forecasted an increase to $16 billion in Q3…
In part 2 of this series, we discuss mainstream EM equity valuations and present the results of our cross-country analysis. The goal is to identify overweights and underweights within an EM equity portfolio.
Yesterday we highlighted that the August update of the Philly Fed’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook survey sent a negative signal, with the New Orders, Sales, and Employment components all deteriorating. On Wednesday, the flash estimate of the US services…
Earlier this week, EUR/JPY closed at a fresh 15-year high, bringing its year-to-date gain to 14%, before losing some ground over the subsequent two days. To the extent that the recent increase in global bond yields continues to encourage carry trades, it has…
European natural gas prices have recently been trending higher with the Dutch TTF gaining 66% since late July. The proximate cause of the rally is supply concerns. The risk of strikes at Australian LNG plants are a threat to the country’s LNG shipments –…
The flash August S&P Global PMI data released on Wednesday painted a picture of softer global growth, while also hinting that Europe is on the cusp of recession. The composite PMI for the euro area fell by 1.6 versus the previous month to 47.0, led by a…