The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the non-US developed economy is “demand-constrained” whereas the US economy is “supply-constrained”. This schism will continue but in reverse. The…
Negotiated wages rose 4.7% y/y in Q1, from 4.5% y/y in Q4 in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, preliminary estimates for the Eurozone Composite PMI surprised to the upside in May. Although wage growth is the main driver of services…
US durable goods orders surprised to the upside in April, growing 0.7% m/m against expectations they would decline. The March growth rate was nevertheless revised significantly lower, from 2.6% m/m to 0.8% m/m. Core capital…
UK retail sales plunged 2.3% m/m in April from a downwardly revised 0.2% m/m contraction in March, significantly undershooting expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline. Household goods as well as clothing and footwear stores led the…
Preliminary estimates suggest that manufacturing activity generally improved across DM economies in May. Manufacturing PMIs for the US, the Eurozone, Japan and the UK all improved from their April levels. Notably,…
The Q1 2024 earnings season is drawing to a close with 93% of S&P 500 companies having reported results as we go to press. Three-quarters (two-thirds) of companies have topped earnings (sales) expectations in Q1, according to…
We do not subscribe to the Goldilocks scenario in which price pressures continue to ease while economic growth remains robust. We expect that softening labor demand will eventually hinder consumption as wage and payrolls growth…
The UK CPI release surprised markets to the upside across the board on Wednesday. Headline CPI increased 2.3% year-on-year, above expectations of 2.1%. Core surprised to the upside as well, moderating from 4.2% to 3.9%y/y, less…