Economic Growth

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

2 years ago

FICC

Tea Leaves From Bond And FX Market Indicators

This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar.

2 years ago

Essentials

Mid-Cap Banks Dodge Another CRE Bullet

Equity investors have been skittish about mid-cap banks ever since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023. The S&P MidCap 400 Regional Banks Index remains 4% below its February 2023 high while the S&P 500 Diversified Banks Index, dominated by the four SIFI…

2 years ago

Essentials

Trade Policy Under A Second Trump Presidency

According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of the greatest cyclical risks to investors. A key question for investors is whether tariffs are prioritized early in the administration or…

2 years ago

GeoMacro

Venezuela: The Year Of The Bolivar!

Special Report

Oil markets will not be impacted by Venezuela in the near term, but by shocks from the Middle East. Maduro’s ability to stay in power in the short-term removes an avenue of oil supply relief. The same avenue is cut off if Trump is reelected. Geopolitical shocks in Venezuela could present tactical buying opportunities for Chile, Peru, and Colombia.

2 years ago

Essentials

The BoC Dove Soars

The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate by 25bps for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. We highlighted in a recent Insight that the soft June inflation print and weakening labor market increased the odds of more aggressive BoC easing. Headline…

2 years ago

Essentials

Euro Area Earnings Likely To Disappoint By A Wide Margin

We assign high odds that the US will tip into a recession by year-end or early 2025. Given it has been the largest driver of global demand in this cycle, a US recession will morph into a global downturn. The procyclical Eurozone economy is particularly…

2 years ago

Essentials

Consumption’s Historical Resilience Ahead Of Recessions

The US economy has clearly cooled from its above-trend pace of growth in 2023. The consensus view among BCA Research’s strategists project that this deceleration will eventually culminate in a recession by year-end or early 2025. Our US Investment strategists…

2 years ago

Essentials

Aggregate US Economic Data Point To Cooling Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – decreased to 0.05 from 0.23, suggesting that the US economy cooled in June. Although the headline index surpassed expectations of a negative (below-average…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Europe Trembles At the Trump Tremor

As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?

2 years ago

Economic Growth

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