Economic Growth

In this <i>Special Report</i>, we revisit our list of signpost economic indicators introduced two years ago to identify if the U.S. and Euro Area were falling into a "Secular Stagnation".

All three of Trump's signature policy proposals - increased deficit-financed infrastructure spending, a more restrictive immigration policy, and trade protectionism - are dollar bullish. These policies could cause the U.S. economy to overheat, forcing the Fed to raise real rates more than it otherwise would. Equities could rally in the near term following a Trump victory, but are likely to face stiff longer-term headwinds. Treasurys would still suffer modest losses, while, ironically, the one asset that could suffer the most from a Trump victory is gold.

The Turkish central bank has almost exhausted its foreign exchange reserve. It has been printing money to keep interest rates lower, and sustain the credit boom in the economy. Such policies are unsustainable and the currency will plunge anew. Currency depreciation will push up market-based interest rates. Stay short/underweight Turkish risk assets. A new trade: Short 2-year local currency government bonds.

The window for "stealth" RMB depreciation is likely closed for now. The Chinese authorities are stepping up efforts to boost infrastructure construction with several major announcements last month. Capital spending on transportation infrastructure will likely accelerate at least through next year.

A Fed rate hike in June, July or September is likely to send our 12-month fed funds discounter toward 70bps by the date of the next hike. This re-rating of rate expectations will cause significant flattening at the long-end of the curve. Investors should enter a 5/30 flattener to profit.

There is a risk that global bond yields move higher in the near term, although we prefer to position for that move <i>via</i> cross-market spread, yield curve and inflation trades.

Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.

This month's <i>Special Report</i> reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.