This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should…
Stronger GDP growth will permit the Fed to hike rates once more before year-end, no earlier than September. However, the feedback loop between the Fed and financial conditions will prevent a second rate hike this year.
The Chinese corporate sector has been reluctant to expand, focusing instead on destocking inventory and hoarding cash. This protects the corporate sector balance sheet, but is not conducive for strong GDP expansion. Q1 earnings…
The Fed's statement underscored its 'go slow' approach, with a June hike increasingly unlikely, but September and December still in play. The BoJ stood pat, reluctant to admit that NIRP was a flop soon after it was launched.…
EM/China growth improvements and the associated rally will falter on their own without tightening by policymakers. The short duration of these mini-cycles and a lack of observable catalysts make it impossible to precisely time…
Japan is in a liquidity trap: bad economic news is good for the yen while good economic news is bad for the yen. Chinese reflation could help risk assets in the months ahead, but poor EM fundamentals will reassert themselves later…