When earnings growth negatively diverges from GDP growth, the gap rarely closes via a rebound in profit growth. The most notable feature of prior episodes is weak corporate pricing power and the current period is no different; an…
The fiscal spending impulse in China is still positive but receding. The nation's productivity and potential GDP growth are bound to decline due to a rising role of government in capital and resource allocation. Hence, cyclical…
In this week's report, we lay out all of the arguments in favor of and against lifting rates before the end of the year. Specifically, we identify seven key questions about the economic outlook that will undoubtedly be the focus of…
China's industrial sector is showing signs of regained strength. Odds of immediate fresh stimulus measures have declined, but Fed tightening will not become a serious policy constraint for the PBoC. Chinese stocks will not be immune…
We reveal what our most-trusted leading indicators are predicting about the major economies, and end with a provocative conclusion.
Our primary argument for continued EM/China growth disappointments is that their credit growth is set to decelerate further and credit impulses will remain negative, depressing economic growth. Rising LIBOR could lead to a stronger U…
The global search for yield, not an improvement in EM fundamentals, has been driving the EM rally. EM/China growth conditions have stabilized but not recovered. Barring a full-fledged cyclical profit upsurge in EM EPS, EM stocks are…