Special Report

Highlights Brazilian growth will recover modestly in 2017, but it will be insufficient to stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. With interest rates still at double digits, public debt dynamics will become unsustainable as the ratio…

Special Report

Highlights In this report, we outline our tactical, cyclical and long term views on French government bonds, linked to France's political situation, cyclical dynamics, and structural outlook. Tactical View: Marine Le Pen does not…

Special Report

Highlights France is on the verge of pro-market structural reforms; Marine Le Pen will not win the presidency. Her odds are 15%; The French economic upswing will continue to surprise; Overweight French stocks relative to German;…

Highlights U.S. growth will remain firm over the next 12 months, but then will begin to slow from its above-trend pace as the economy runs out of spare capacity. Fiscal stimulus, by the time it is enacted, may simply end up pushing up…

Highlights Duration: Rising political tensions in the U.S. will not offset the cyclical upward momentum in global growth, which is supported by accelerating corporate profits. Bond yields are unlikely to fall much in the near term,…

Highlights Duration: Treasuries are now slightly expensive relative to global growth indicators, and the global economic recovery appears sustainable. Despite lingering concerns about policy uncertainty and bearish bond positioning, we…

Table 1Recommended Allocation  The Reflation Trade Continues It is wrong to think that the recent rally in risk assets is mainly due to the election of President Donald Trump. Yes, since November 8, U.S. equities have risen by 7%…

Highlights Undue pessimism about global growth is giving way to unbridled optimism. Chinese growth has accelerated. However, there is a risk that the economy hits a speed bump later in 2017, as fiscal policy becomes less accommodative…