Highlights There is growing evidence that China's industrial sector is slowing, as are Asian trade flows. EM stocks have seen their tops. Even though current trade tensions between the U.S. and China could well dissipate, we are at…
Highlights The 2018 outlook for both economic growth and corporate profits remains constructive for risk assets, although evidence is gathering that global growth is peaking. Some measures of global activity related to capital…
Highlights Fixed Income Asset Allocation: Global growth indicators remain solid, while inflation pressures continue to build. Central banks will remain focused on those factors, and not news-driven market volatility spikes, until the…
Highlights Economy: There is no imminent danger of a significant deterioration in global growth, but the rate of improvement is peaking. The result of the more moderate pace of economic growth and the mounting threat of protectionism…
Highlights Financial market volatility in general and FX market volatility in particular is set to increase because of the following three factors: Rising U.S. inflation will make the Federal Reserve increasingly hawkish, and the…
Highlights There are many things that central bankers know they don't know. "Known unknowns" include the outlook for growth (both actual and potential), NAIRU, the neutral rate of interest, and the true shape of the…
Highlights Bond Strategy: The investment backdrop is broadly evolving the way that we forecasted in our 2018 Outlook, thus we continue to maintain our core strategic recommendations. Maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration and…
Highlights Duration: Fed Governor Lael Brainard stated last week that many of the headwinds that held back growth between 2014 and 2016 have faded. This acknowledgement from the most dovish Fed Governor opens the door for a more…
Highlights BCA's view is that while a major trade war is unlikely, trade tensions will persist. The Fed, not protectionism, will end the cycle. There have been five episodes in the past 35 years when global growth surged and…
Highlights Federal Reserve: Is the U.S. neutral rate now higher? ECB: How much has the euro rally damaged European growth? Bank of Japan: Will a stronger yen tip Japan back into deflation? Bank of England: Will higher real wages…