Highlights China's old economy continues to slow in the leadup to the negative effect of U.S. import tariffs on Chinese export growth. Weaker trade data over the coming few months is likely to weigh further on investor sentiment.…
Highlights Economic data and policy announcements over the past month reflect the view that policymakers are serious about restraining credit growth, and that they will attempt to combat any weakness in external demand by boosting…
Highlights Growth Scare: Despite the recent pickup in global equity market volatility, bond volatility remains subdued. Until there is more decisive evidence of a deeper pullback in global growth that is impacting the mighty U.S.…
Highlights The correction in global equities is not yet over, but we would turn more constructive if stocks retreated about 6% from current levels. Among the many things bothering investors, the fate of the Chinese economy remains…
Highlights Five risks to our bullish dollar stance need to be monitored: further weakness in the S&P 500; rebounding gold prices; stabilizing EM exchange rates and bond prices; Spanish bank stocks at multi-decade lows; and large,…
Highlights Duration: Foreign economic growth continues to diverge negatively from growth in the United States. The resulting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar will eventually drag U.S. growth down, and could temporarily threaten the…
Highlights The Fed remains on a tightening course as the U.S. economy has no spare capacity, yet growth in the rest of the world is suffering as EM financial conditions are tightening. It will take more pain for the Fed to capitulate…
Highlights Heightening geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, higher U.S. bond yields, tightening U.S. dollar liquidity and weakening EM/China growth - all combined - constitute a bitter cocktail for EM. Barring a…