Dear Client, In addition to today’s report, we sent you our 2019 Outlook earlier this week, featuring a discussion between BCA editors and Mr. and Ms. X. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Highlights Today…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…
Dear Client, Early next week, we will be sending you our BCA Outlook 2019 - our annual dialogue with the bearishly inclined Mr. X and his family. In this report, BCA editors will highlight the most impactful themes for the global…
Highlights Global growth has not yet bottomed, this will provide additional support for the dollar. EUR/USD will be a buy once it dips below 1.1, as slowing global growth means that European activity will continue to lag behind the U.…
Highlights Duration: The waning impact from fiscal stimulus and the drag from weak foreign economic activity will cause U.S. growth to slow as we enter 2019. But with market-implied rate hike expectations still depressed, we are…
Highlights Falling Oil Prices & Bond Yields: Murky trends in global growth data, at a time of tight labor markets and gently rising inflation, are preventing a full recovery of risk assets after the October correction. A new…
Despite a stellar Q3 earnings print, the S&P 500 had a terrible October as EPS continues to do the hard work in lifting the market (Chart 1). Chart 1EPS Doing The Heavy Lifting We bought the dip,1 consistent with our view…
As is tradition, during client visits in Europe last week, I had the pleasure of reconnecting with Ms. Mea, a long-term BCA client.1 It was our third encounter and, as always, Ms. Mea was eager to delve into our reasoning, challenge our…