Highlights The Chinese economy slowed in May following two months of improvement, but the June PMI data suggests that the pace of decline is moderating. Still, the economy remains highly vulnerable in a full-tariff scenario. This…
Highlights Current activity indicators are now losing momentum, or outright rolling over. This confirms that European (and global) growth is now entering a down-oscillation. Why? It is the rate of decline in the bond yield that has…
Highlights Relative Growth & Inflation: Underlying U.S. and European economic growth momentum remains surprisingly similar, with weakness concentrated in manufacturing industries most exposed to trade uncertainty. Realized inflation…
Highlights Central banks globally have turned dovish, with the Fed virtually promising to cut rates in July. But this will be an “insurance” cut, like 1995 and 1998, not the beginning of a pre-recessionary easing cycle.…
Highlights We are searching for evidence of an imminent end to this business cycle, … : Investors who recognize the onset of the recession in a timely fashion will have a leg up on the competition all the way through the…
Analysis on Thailand is available below. Feature Last week we were on the road meeting with some of our U.S. clients. This week’s report presents some of the key topics of our discussions in a Q&A format. Question: You have…