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Economic Growth

The Delinquency Paradox

Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit performance. 

US Investment Strategy by Jennifer Lacombe
European Consumer Confidence Disappoints
The March flash estimate for European Consumer Confidence missed estimates, and fell to -14.5 from -13.6 in February. This negative reading is the first European sentiment number missing expectations since January. The sentiment shift between the US and…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Analysis Paralysis

The market reaction to this afternoon’s Fed meeting looks overdone. Investors could be in for a hawkish surprise when it becomes apparent that the Fed won’t ease policy into higher tariff-driven inflation prints.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US Housing Prospects Remain Weak
US February housing data was relatively strong, with housing starts rising 11.2% m/m after falling 9.8% in January. While they fell less than expected, building permits still declined at a faster pace than in January. The March NAHB Housing Market Index also…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Europe’s Vibes Keep Getting Better
The March ZEW index for Germany and the eurozone beat estimates, with the expectations component rising to 51.6 from 26.0 in February. The current situation assessment only marginally improved yet remains deeply negative at -87.6. The March data shows…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Canadian Inflation Distorted By Tax Break Expiry
February Canadian headline inflation was stronger than expected, rising to 2.6% y/y from 1.9% in January. The Bank of Canada’s core measures were also slightly hotter than expected, both rising to 2.9% from 2.7% a month prior, near the top of the BoC’s…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US Retail Sales Present A Mixed Picture
February US retail sales were mixed, with the headline number missing expectations at only 0.2% m/m. January’s reading was revised down to -1.2%. Core measures (excluding gas & autos) were roughly in line with estimates, but the control group saw a 1.0%…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
China: Expect Growth To Soften After Strong Q1 Seasonality
Outside of the real estate sector, Chinese activity was decent in January and February. Both industrial production and retail sales were slightly stronger than expected. The jobless rate ticked up to 5.4% while property investment was down -9.8%…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Rising Inflation Expectations Will Keep The Fed On The Sidelines
The preliminary March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 57.9 from 64.7. The decrease came from both the assessment of current conditions and expectations, with the latter falling almost 10 points. Measures of 1-year…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Market Musings

Notwithstanding periodic short-term rebounds, the path of least resistance for global share prices remains down. The resilience of European and Chinese stocks in the face of the US equity selloff is unsustainable. These economies will deteriorate as US demand – the sole pillar of global growth in the past two years – vanishes and tariffs bite. A new currency trade: go long MXN / short an equal-weighted basket of CAD and the euro.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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